Back in 2018, it took just eight words to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.
During that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.
The Shift in Position and Settled Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on Europe
However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past
This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.
Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Risk and A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be prudent of him to recall the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
